But Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings has the Cardinals ranking only above the Houston Texans, making them the second-worst team in the league. On Tuesday morning when we post the update with Monday Night Football added in, all of the free stats pages become free again. https://www.footballoutsiders.com/quick-reads/2022/kenneth-walker-and-legacy-boom-or-bust-backs. This makes him seem barely affected by blatant holding. Pollard finishes as the best player at his position in Historical Lookups. No one will care now because of the results, but I suspect in reality Goff isn't all that dissimilar from Stafford. Pro Football Reference SRS, based solely on points scored and allowed plus schedule, has the Vikings tied for sixth. Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.65 1.58 3 1.93 1 2.65 1 2.23 2 5.72 2 9.78 2 2 Alabama The 2 last games of 2021 which didn't mean anything were multi score games. It's curious how traditional stats like total yardage, and time of possession show an even game, some more advanced stats like EPA per play show either an even game or a game where the Vikings played somewhat better, all of which coincide with what actually happened in the game, but DVOA says the Bills were significantly better than the Vikings. Down Dolphins vs. Chargers: Miami elevates wide receiver Freddie Swain from the practice squad, Miami Dolphins elevate wide receiver Freddie Swain for Sunday Nights Matchup vs. the Los Angeles Chargers, sluggish performance against the San Francisco 49ers, Dolphins vs. Chargers: How to watch, game time, streaming, injury report and more, Dolphins vs. Chargers Week 14 full game coverage: Preview, in-game, and recaps, Dolphins vs Chargers Preview & Prediction: Week 14, 2023 NFL Pro Bowl: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill Top-5 Vote-Getters early on. I seem to recall that DVOA doesn't treat all fumbles the same, but perhaps that's just me misremembering. Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . WebGeorgia remains on top of our college football ratings, with a Big Ten/SEC split in the top five. The issue right now is the gap between the top pass rushers and offensive tackles is so large that refs have literally just stopped calling everything against the best in the league. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team, Playoff Previews (previously Game Previews). Football Outsiders ranks Miami at No. Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. I guess after the Super Bowl, torquing a guy to the ground by his face isn't a penalty anymore. It was a really bad play! In my opinion last year's team folds when they're down 10-27, there's something different this year. The Vikings have nothing really in common with the other teams on that table. They are a very weird team. 7 total isn't much (t-8th with 8 more teams), so they're above average but not some insane outlier like last year's Seahawks who had 15 plays of 40+ yards on just 954 plays (Vikings have 7 in 590). 49ers 2, Rams 6, Saints 10, Falcons 11, 2. Carroll was already named one of two All-Decade Coaches for the 2010s by the Pro Football Hall of Fame, having turned around a middling Seahawks franchise into one of the top 2 or 3 most successful teams since 2010. Visalia, CA. by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? As always, positive numbers represent more points so DEFENSE is better when it is NEGATIVE. In reply to Bills Endzone Fumble by wludford. 6.85 vs 6.32 -- by virtue of being at the 1, the Bills had a negative expected EPA at the snap. The Miami Dolphins were one of this week's big movers, climbing from 12th to seventh with a hefty 39-17 win over Cleveland. They're 25th in pass DVOA since Week 4, below such dominant aerial attacks as Chicago and Tennessee. In reply to I seem to recall that DVOA by fyo. Anyway, it's certainly possible that DVOA is underrating the Vikings a little bit. Brown, with only a few other plays sprinkled throughout to keep the defense honest. 14 offense, the No. Despite a 3-2 conference record, Bijan Robinson and the Longhorns could still rally to reach the Big 12 Championship Game. The top two teams in DVOA both lost this weekend, and they lost despite both teams having a higher DVOA rating than their opponents. In reply to It's all rendered boot now by theslothook, "It's all rendered moot now because they won the Sb". In reply to I thought Stafford was by Noahrk. Chubb has the third highest DVOA in the NFL, and Hunt is sitting 12th. 5 yards of start position a game seems like a bigger deal to me. In reply to Not that either team will by Joey-Harringto. Because DVOA discounts fumbles and caps big plays, it discounts both plays. As I understand it, every year FO evaluates their metrics and attempts to improve their predictability. Football Outsiders ranks the Browns offensive line as a top-10 run blocking unit. Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? Maybe even look like a proper HoF. Keep up with the latest storylines, expert analysis, highlights, scores and more. What even is a boom or bust team? If they revert to that, they could still end up losing 8 games. I see mean regression happening and barely budging their TO differential because of those insane splits. Fumbles after a reception are another matter completely, with the defense recovering 60% of the time (same source). 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Offense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 NFL playoff picture and clinching scenarios Week 14 - Through TNF results. The two offensive fumbles by the Vikings never had a realistic chance of going to the bills. The Cowboys only climbed from 13th to 12th place in offensive DVOA. 22 last week), and the No. 7 and moves Tampa Bay and San Francisco up. Their 1st Q3 TD was in week 7. The last time we came out flat and stayed flat long enough to get boatraced was week 11 vs. the Colts last season. Rk Team Rec FBS FEI OFEI Rk DFEI Rk NDE Rk ELS Rk GLS Rk ALS Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.65 1.58 3 1.93 1 2.65 1 2.23 2 5.72 2 9.78 2 2 Alabama Their special teams methodology puts the Vikings fifth in the league. Thatll win you 12-14 games and maybe even a SB ring. DVOA Analysis. One is listed as an aborted play. a longer play is better but the DVOA increase is less than linear. The Dolphins will look to get back on track ahead of next weeks divisional battle against Buffalo, which also was flexed into primetime. In reply to But how much of that strong by Aaron Brooks G. But they all are competition for the rest of the league. by Team; by Week I say that as somebody who was fine with the old regime getting fired. You could do a weighted average, giving less weight to the top team in the division, a little more weight to the second team, etc. Our special teams methodology puts them 25th! Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Bills 1, Dolphins 7, Jets 9, Patriots 12, 4. we hope these improvements come from learning the scheme, but we cannot know. Head coach Nick Sirianni and his offensive staff simply did not want to ask an offensive line with so many backups playing to hold up in pass protection, especially versus a frenzied Cardinals front seven. I haven't seen a study that looks at backward passes, but fumbles after non-QB runs and forward passes have the roughly same probabilities, so I would use that number (40/60) as a guestimate. Carroll was already named one of two All-Decade Coaches for the 2010s by the Pro Football Hall of Fame, having turned around a middling Seahawks franchise into one of the top 2 or 3 most successful teams since 2010. Had good protection, and thus had a very good game, but threw the most horrific red zone interception you'll ever see, and was fortunate to have it negated by penalty. NFL Week 5 - The Buffalo Bills remain on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings five weeks into the 2022 season.Philadelphia and Baltimore also stay in second and third place. In reply to It's so disappointing the by GwillyGecko. South Bend, IN. 1993 AFC West (8.8) The next three fumbles might have members of the opposing team near them, and would be no more predictive than these three. Use promo code TANIER to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Mike Tanier. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars are the No. by Team; by Week Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming. Coach Mike McDaniel on the team remains on the West Coast as they prepare for Sunday nights battle against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers. Also long gains are field position dependent. Right. by DVOA the Vikings have actually been a disappointment this year (they were projected to be a very good team in the FO almanac). It's wild now that the perception has flipped and analytics love Allen's offense but the tape is concerning. It would judge divisions primarily on having no softies, would reward them for having mostly good or great teams, and give a little bonus for having an elite division winner. Theres a lot more than two ways to think about it. Unfortunately, he was pretty bad at it - so their return game might improve now that he doesn't have the job. Minnesota recovered all four fumbles in this game. After starting the year with a league-best 41.1% offensive DVOA, the Ravens only have played one game with an offensive DVOA above 20% and two games with a DVOA above 10%. Micah Parsons and the Cowboys pass rush are leading the charge, of course. Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. in. But you are comparing him to Stafford who is a prominent expert on throwing pick-sixes. Recent and Trending topics from Football Outsiders. The Vikings have been doing a lot of failing on early downs, then throwing for 12 yards on 3rd and 8. Do the Vikings have a big number of big plays? I was a bit disappointed. Football Outsiders ranks the Browns offensive line as a top-10 run blocking unit. Founder of Football Outsiders Editor-in-Chief Creator of DVOA and DYAR Worcester, MA. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Hard to define what the Y should be. (harmonic means only make sense with all +ve numbers and though the Pats-35.0%, Bills-31.4%, and Jets 27.2% were insane in '04 the Dolphins were not at -14.4%). Isn't the first play more valuable precisely because it was from your own 20? In reply to In other words, see comment by LionInAZ. EPA per play on defense puts the Vikings eighth on first down. I would argue that it is more interesting to optimize for future fumbles, not the specifics of any single fumble. They are the 3rd best team in the league when it comes to creating turnovers. Their 24.0% defensive rushing DVOA performance against the Chicago Bears saw the Patriots give up 82 yards and a touchdown on 14 carries by Justin Fields. 26 defense, and the No, 11 special teams unit. 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 The Patriots allowed a 40.5% defensive rushing DVOA against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, led by Lamar Jackson's 107 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. (not aimed at you). And he was very good in the playoffs too. Football Outsiders content published by ESPN. Down DAVE is currently 24% preseason forecast and 76% actual performance for teams with 10 games, and 36% preseason forecast and 64% actual performance for teams with nine games. That makes this the third-strongest "surprise win" since 2010, ahead of only a Titans-Jaguars game from 2013 and the Miami won over Baltimore back in Week 2 of this season. Maybe that's where you and I differ because I do think they're much closer than people otherwise think. In reply to Welcome to the club buddy by Kaepernicus, Offensive linemen were using their hands back in the 60s. Historical Lookups. WebGeorgia remains on top of our college football ratings, with a Big Ten/SEC split in the top five. Saying botched snaps are recovered 99% of the time by the offense may be true, idk if there's actually data to back that up, but most of those scenarios where there's a botched snap are not identical to the scenario in this game, where the defense is lined up and shooting directly at the center. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team; ESPN: Best Second-Year Players of 2022; ESPN: NFL's Deepest and Thinnest Rosters; DVOA DATABASE: Exclusive Access Historical Lookups. He returns in 20% of simulations by Week 15, 60% of simulations by Week 16, and all simulations by Week 17. Now bad qbs look like bad qbs; Heinecke would have ranked at the bottom in last week's quick reads, absent a ref blocking a Viking safety, gifting the Commies a 56 yard td. I'd be curious how we would view Jared Goff if they had won that super bowl with him doing as little as he did on offense. Exclusive Premium Content For Subscribers. Our 2022 NFL playoff picture tracker is updated through the Week 14 Thursday Night Football results. Staff Writer Though he finished in the top 10 running backs with over 3,800 yards from scrimmage in those three years, the Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs' fifth-year option in April.. And so Jacobs, in the midst of an All-Pro-caliber season, is about to hit the free-agent market. It takes every single play during the NFL season and compares each one to a league-average baseline based on situation. Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and Miamis offense are top 10 in points per game, top five in yards per game and the teams defense is averaging four sacks over the last three weeks, which is the third most in the NFL. If there are any TCU fans still reading that haven't yet thrown their device across the room in disgust at these numbers and the obvious disrespect, I can certainly understand the perspective that these ratings and projections are meaningless in the context of producing a Big 12 champion.The Horned Frogs are undefeated (8-0 overall, 7-0 by Team; by Week Rk Team Rec FBS F+ OF+ Rk DF+ Rk FEI Rk SP+ Rk; 1: Georgia: 13-0: 12-0: 2.67: 1.69: 7: 2.40: 1: 1.51: 1: 36.7 Week 13 Staff Picks: Is Chris Olave Best Bet for OROY? These numbers are adjusted based on the opposing offenses and include defensive pass interference. In reply to Isn't the first play more by siggyllama. At that point, almost for opposite reasons, there was uncertainty about what Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff were as quarterbacks. In reply to They are a very weird team by Kaepernicus. The Cowboys remained in second place in defensive DVOA, with the New England Patriots and Bills switching places in first and Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. 2022 AFC East through Week 10 (7.25) Rk Team Rec FBS DFEI DDE Rk DTD Rk DVD Rk DFD Rk DBD Rk DTO Rk 1 Georgia 14-1 13-1 1.93 1.42 1 .062 1 .169 1 .562 2 .169 15 .131 33 2 by Team; by Week The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. Cleveland DAVE rating is adjusted to reflect Deshaun Watson returning from his suspension in Week 13. Our Post-Game Win Expectancy formula says that based on the stat splits of this game, we would normally expect the Bills to have won the game 98.6% of the time. Week 13 DVOA Preview: Chiefs Slide, Cowboys Ambush; USC Falls Hard, TCU Makes Playoff Despite Loss; & Support Derrik Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . As if the elderly didn't have enough to worry about these past 2years the Vikings have had negative DVOA in 6 of 9 games this season (!!! Is there a way to see 4th quarter DVOA ? What a humbug Josh Allen has been the last two games. Carroll was already named one of two All-Decade Coaches for the 2010s by the Pro Football Hall of Fame, having turned around a middling Seahawks franchise into one of the top 2 or 3 most successful teams since 2010. In reply to RE: Packers special teams by big10freak. Anyways, if they want to win a playoff game, their defense still needs to get bettter. The ranks are bsaically the same for each down, but when you put it all together, DVOA just has the Vikings lower than EPA per play. It would be interesting to see, by comparison, what the Bills stop of the Vikings the previous play on 4th down was worth in DVOA. We preview the game with some assistance from Bolts from the Blue. Things get a bit screwy if you have two teams with under -100% DVOA, but that's not a significant worry - extremely unlikely after one game played, ridiculously unlikely after two, unimaginable after more - and can be fixed by multiplying 1+DVOA for both teams, taking the negative of the absolute value of the result, and multiplying by 1+DVOA for the remaining two teams. Maybe something like "over X%(50?) I think all that can be said of them is that they're high variance, with the 'top' being very high, and the 'valley' being about NFL average. They are the worst team in the league when it comes to turnovers on offense. With the Ravens, it's worries about the offense. While you're at it, you can get a seven-day trial of FO+ and check out the FO+ features like a deeper DVOA database, weekly fantasy projections, fantasy football research tools, Derrik Klassen's All-32 game preview column, and picks against the spread (now including projected totals for over/unders). KaVontae Turpin has produced a 52-yard punt return and 63 yard kickoff return. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vAy-mW6Kg9EHere's the Bear's game. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Overall Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 The Georgia Bulldogs aren't quite as good on defense as they were last year, the Stetson Bennett and company have improved on offense, making them the favorites in the College Football Playoff. Use promo code TANIER to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Mike Tanier. NFL Week 10 - The Buffalo Bills may have fallen to the Minnesota Vikings in the most exciting game of the year, but we still think they are the best team in the NFL.The Bills are back on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings despite the loss. Revised as of 12/07/22, through Week 13. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team; ESPN: Best Second-Year Players of 2022; ESPN: NFL's Deepest and Thinnest Rosters; DVOA DATABASE: Exclusive Access Historical Lookups. The only reason you might say it "favors" consistent gains is because long gains aren't all that predictive and don't happen often. 11 last week), the No. All three players are listed as questionable for this Sunday's divisional game against the Cowboys, but if one or any of them are out, the Eagles may roll with a conservative game plan once again. While Hurts' inconsistencies as a true dropback passer play some part in that, the depleted offensive line was the biggest issue on Sunday. I'd also want to say that the variance is interesting. On a more serious note, the Bills have in theory all the ingredients of a modern NFL team. I think Minn has won bc of turnover advantage and they've have started on their own 31.4 vs 26 yd line for opps. It's very similar to LeBron/Shaq in the NBA getting less calls than they should because they do not demonstrate the proper reaction to draw the foul even though the impact/position of the offender is the same. If you provide infinite context, you can predict with near 100% certainty who will recover the fumble, completely removing "fumble luck". Historical Lookups. near the middle of the pack in DVOA and DYAR, both rushing and receiving. Busted drive rate (DBD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that gain zero or negative yards. Georgia remains on top of our college football ratings, with a Big Ten/SEC split in the top five. 22 last week), and the No. Injury luck seems to at least have some strategy/skill element to it. DVOA measures not just yardage, but yardage towards a first down: Five yards on third-and-4 are worth more than five yards on first-and-10 and much more than five Founder of Football Outsiders More info available here! Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . What does DVOA do with a team like Buffalo, that can string together 9 amazing plays followed by 1 brain-melting error and do it multiple times a game? Again, that's a huge change in EPA that we aren't counting in DVOA at all because it says nothing about how good the Vikings defense is. Get all the features and proprietary Since the Packers moved on from star wideout Davante Adams, Rodgers has failed to get on the same page as his receivers. Unfortunately, I expected FO fans to have passed the first two rules of fight club and some have not. It's running backs, but you could use the failed completions thresholds for passing plays instead of success rate. In reply to Well, if your average play by KnotMe. Punting , kickoff, and coverage all look improved.my eye test ? The Cowboys remained in second place in defensive DVOA, with the New England Patriots and Bills switching places in first and third place. Historical Lookups. But the Dallas Cowboys leapt into second place -- and first place in the NFC -- by hammering the Minnesota Vikings 40-3. I guess that's outweighed by the lack of predictive power. https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202211130buf.htm. Detroit Lions Receivers Key to Daily Fantasy. The Patriots allowed a 40.5% defensive rushing DVOA against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, led by Lamar Jackson's 107 rushing yards and a touchdown on 11 carries. The Eagles played a sloppy game like the Cowboys did, hence the reference to letting bad officiating impact a game. DVOA ratings represent value from the point of view of the defense, not fantasy football players, and include items that have no impact on fantasy football (such as how many interceptions are caught on passes intended to certain receivers). The technique is to keep your hands inside and grab the shoulder pads without ripping jersey or stopping momentum when they get around you. It's all rendered moot now because they won the Sb, But I thought the decision to trade Matthew Stafford was a fascinating insight into perceived value. Shuffling around also moves the New England Patriots up a spot, which puts the entire AFC East into the DVOA top 12 at this point. near the middle of the pack in DVOA and DYAR, both rushing and receiving. The Bills had already moved back into the No. This is exactly the point of the thought exercise - its easy to give labels like boom or bust without actually having a definition for them. 2021 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 WebFootball Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season. They have the most runs over 20 yards of all 32 units, and are averaging five yards per carry. If there are any TCU fans still reading that haven't yet thrown their device across the room in disgust at these numbers and the obvious disrespect, I can certainly understand the perspective that these ratings and projections are meaningless in the context of producing a Big 12 champion.The Horned Frogs are undefeated (8-0 overall, 7-0 The Rams, KOC's previous team, by Adjusted Games Lost were 4th in 2018, 10th in 2019, 2nd in 2020 and 5th in 2021. In reply to I don't understand the idea by Noahrk. The players obviously don't like the terrible officiating, but I guess the players association is incapable of doing anything about it. What kind of name is that anyway? by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA by. We could look at the average of all four teams in DVOA. I did a little bit of research into where the differences are between DVOA and these other methodologies. They also have 124 additional yards on penalties. Now, there are two ways to do this. The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. 2022 Team DVOA Ratings: Defense Updated 12/06/2022 01:12 PM EST Year 2022 2021 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 https://www.footballoutsiders.com/subscribe, In reply to Absolutely! With the seven-team playoff field in each conference, it is now possible for an entire division to make the playoffs in the same year. WebSave 10% & Support Mike Tanier Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . Not everyone gets an 07 style vengeance tour over the league. It's your argument. Thats a lot of potential turnovers, -a pitch to the RB where the RG stepped on cousins foot, nobody within five yards is cook, -a slightly backwards swing pass that was easily covered by cook with nobody close enough to contest it, -a pitch to the RB where the RG stepped on cousins foot, nobody within five yards of cook. Stafford, Donald, Kupp: Bang, Marry, or Dump? by Team; as of a Specific Week; Single Game DVOA. In reply to Also long gains are field by ChrisS. More precisely, it says the Bills were significantly better than the Vikings at the sort of things that correlate to future success. I guess I can't quantify what makes a boom or bust team. They rank 26th in DVOA allowed on running back targets while surrendering a league-high 8.6 running back targets per game. The Buffalo Bills clung to the top spot in DVOA entering Monday Night Football in Week 11. Stafford never had a bad healthy season after his rookie year, until this year at age 34(assuming he's healthy now), and racked up several top 10 DVOA seasons with the more frequently than not poorly coached Lions. The playoff odds stuff on FO converts DVOA advantage to a winning percentage, so that could be used instead. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars are the No. Cowboys 2, Eagles 6, Giants 8, Redskins 9, 2t. I'm certainly not going to complain about the rating & ranking. Flacco was far inferior. I love how you have a stat called Dave, reminds me of the cop from Harold and Kumar: Kumar? And the special teams tanked when he left and O'Quinn took over. In terms of DVOA, the Jaguars now have the No. Staff Writer The best division prior to 2002 by average DVOA rating instead of rank is the 1992 NFC East at 14.3%. Next week against the Bears, more of the same obvious holding. Welcome to the club buddy. by Aaron Brooks G. WebFootball Outsiders' revolutionary metrics that break down every single play of the NFL season. Needless to say, this is the best duo in the league by a comfortable margin. Now, the best division since 2002 is the 2004 AFC East, where the average team had 19.8% DVOA. His numbers aren't bad, but he was in a very good offense (and team) and he made some really bad throws at times. Call 1-800-GAMBLER. Still, the Eagles only drop slightly after losing to the Commanders. Even in the era of 40 year old qbs, he's nearly certain to not be as good as he was when younger. Not sure how it's happening but that 50 to 60 yards a game. RBSDM.com does not list EPA for special teams but ESPN FPI is split into offense, defense, and special teams. Note that our decision of which receiver is "number one" and which receiver is "number two" is somewhat subjective. The run defence has also improved since the start of season, and Hunter is having bigger impact. Nick Bosa has been getting held continuously since the second half of his rookie year. by Team; by Week Use promo code, Sunday NFL Liveblog: Eagles, Giants Fight for Playoffs, Khalil Mack Key to Chargers' Chances Against Dolphins, Jason Kelce's All-Time Block Leads Eagles Over Titans. Injury luck, fumble luck, and schedule luck are the most significant areas of superiority the current regime has shown, compared to the old, so far. Though he finished in the top 10 running backs with over 3,800 yards from scrimmage in those three years, the Raiders declined to exercise Jacobs' fifth-year option in April.. And so Jacobs, in the midst of an All-Pro-caliber season, is about to hit the free-agent market. Scroll down the page and you'll see the 8-1 Vikings aren't even in the top half of the league in DVOA this year! Why does DVOA favor the Bills' performance by so much? 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. Team; Week; Stat Splits by. Offense All EPA/Success Rate stats are via rbsdm.com NCAA Week 12 November 23, 3:25 pm ET 8 in the league with a team DVOA of 14.1 percent. Touchdown rate (DTD) is the percentage of opponent offensive drives that result in a touchdown. Read the article METHODS TO THE MADNESS for more information. The entire NFC East makes the playoffs in 12.8% of today's simulations, and at least three of the NFC East teams make it in 88.6% of simulations. NFL Week 10 - The Buffalo Bills may have fallen to the Minnesota Vikings in the most exciting game of the year, but we still think they are the best team in the NFL.The Bills are back on top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings despite the loss. non-garbage possessions in FBS vs. FBS games. In reply to Bills defensive DVOA by laflamablanca87. 14 offense, the No. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. The entire offseason vibes felt like a team treating this season as a victory lap. Stafford's tenure with the Lions teased of a possible higher upside while Goffs comparatively rosier surroundings warned of a dangerous downside. Patriots 2, Bills 3, Jets 4, Dolphins 22. Mike recently wrapped up a six-year run as the NFL Lead Columnist for Bleacher Report; his popular Monday Morning Digest feature will presumably be replaced by 27 defense (down from No. Historical Lookups. At the moment the only positions that can exploit these athletic mismatches in the NFL are on offense or in the secondary. However, that would favor divisions that had one superlative team in a year with less parity than 2022. There's a part of me that almost wanted him to miss Sunday's game so we could see if the offensive staff can plan a winning strategy or if they're just counting on the Josh Allen "and a miracle occurs" offense now. Do the Vikings have a big number of big plays? Yes. So, maybe they won't? I expected him to be more reliable. We know you are here for the FREE analytics, not the ads. Terms of Use | Privacy Policy | Cookie Policy | Responsible Gaming, College football power ratings and analysis based on Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI), Support Football Outsiders' independent media and . The Cowboys are also quietly getting outstanding play from their special teams. They had 202 yards and 10 points for the rest of the game which is a borderline average outing for teams playing in Buffalo so far this season. Week 14 Staff Picks: Can Anyone in NFC Stop Eagles? In reply to Another way to think about strong divisions by nat. Thats a fine way to think about strong divisions. But Football Outsiders DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) rankings has the Cardinals ranking only above the Houston Texans, making them the second-worst team in the league. From the Football Outsiders glossary: The main statistic used on Football Outsiders, DVOA breaks down the entire season play-by-play, comparing success on each play to the league average based on a number of variables including down, distance, location on field, current score gap, quarter, and opponent quality. Web2022 F+ ratings combining FEI and SP+. Chubb has the third highest DVOA in the NFL, and Hunt is sitting 12th. The motto on this year's Vikings is "situational matters" and watching the games it feels like there is some truth to it, I wonder if there is a way to account for win probability more than EPA/play. Since last January, it's really been about what happens this coming January, and that may be how the McDermott/Allen years go. The hand-waiving about fumble luck is one of my biggest points. Obviously not enough if their overall DVOA is +41.7% for the game. I could keep the original property while scaling the numbers down as much as I wanted. Worcester, MA. The crazy thing about their defense is they are in the bottom 4 teams in the NFL when it comes to average time and plays per possession. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Historical Lookups. In fact, their DVOA rating moved up this week.. Micah is going to have to figure out how to beat holds and double teams just like the rest of the elite pass rushers in the NFL. Use promo code DERRIK to save 10% on any FO+ membership and give half the cost of your membership to tip Derrik. *New: It's not a paywall, except on Mondays! Chubb has the third highest DVOA in the NFL, and Hunt is sitting 12th. ESPN: Best Veteran Contracts on Each Team; ESPN: Best Second-Year Players of 2022; ESPN: NFL's Deepest and Thinnest Rosters; DVOA DATABASE: Exclusive Access Historical Lookups. The fumble was worth -501.8% DVOA for the Bills' offense. Wasnt it 2 picks and 2 fumbles? Cowboys 1, Eagles 2, Redskins 6, Cardinals 14, Giants 17, 3. If you want, break the range into rankings by quintiles or by values of stddev, to create tiers of boom-or-bust. The second lesson you learn is you don't know what you think you know. But -- here's the biggest difference between this game and the Bills-Vikings game -- the Commanders ran 81 plays compared to just 47 for the Eagles. Is Texas the Big 12 Contender to Watch in November? It's different rules for different players because they are truly elite. When you ask how much competition the second place team had for second place, you look at the next two teams. That meant it took two first rounders plus a downgrade in age to trade lower downside for greater upside. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. Baltimore simulation assumes that Lamar Jackson will miss Week 14. Explore sample content below to see what you're missing. This is the Football Outsiders Top 16 through 10 weeks of 2022, measured by our proprietary Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA) system that breaks down every single play and compares a team's performance to the league average based on situation in order to determine value over average (explained further here). As of this week, we are now posting DVOA data on Monday instead of waiting until Tuesday as in the past. If you recover, that's the very definition on luck, situational probabilities notwithstanding. Terms at draftkings.com/sportsbook. They rank 26th in DVOA allowed on running back targets while surrendering a league-high 8.6 running back targets per game. I thought the Bears game was a perfect microcosm of the Goff experience. 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